Researchers show market accuracy comes from a tiny group of informed traders, not broad participation. Apr 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m. Make preferred on The Green Beret arrested for betting on a classified U.S. raid looked like a one-off scandal for prediction markets. A new study suggests he may be a more troubling data point: an extreme example of the small group of informed traders who, as the soldier is accused of doing, actually move prices on Polymarket, while the crowd loses money around them.Th...