FOR MANY years, shipowners on panels and quarterly calls have been asked: What happens if the Strait of Hormuz closes? The response was almost always the same: if it ever happens, the closure will be brief, because the world cannot afford for it to be long. Now that the strait is effectively closed, this response looks like a failure of imagination. An extended closure — from a practical, commercial perspective — now seems plausible. War risk insurance costs for a Hormuz passage are high, as was...