Anthropic study finds AI exposure slows job growth for older, educated, higher-paid workers through 2034; no widespread unemployment yet but hiring of younger workers declines in at-risk occupations since late 2022.

Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

Key FindingsWe introduce a new measure of AI displacement risk, observed exposure, that combines theoretical LLM capability and real-world usage data, weighting automated (rather than augmentative) and work-related uses more heavilyAI is far from reaching its theoretical capability: actual coverage remains a fraction of what's feasibleOccupations with higher observed exposure are projected by the BLS to grow less through 2034Workers in the most exposed professions are more likely to be older, fe...